【列國誌🇲🇲🇿🇦】和平獎之後：昂山素姬 Vs 曼德拉
Added 2021-02-19 10:19:41 +0000 UTC
歷史將會如何評價昂山素姬？無論她為自己設計怎樣的身份，在可見將來，她作為緬甸人民領袖的事實將依然不會動搖。但若期望作為管治者的昂山繼續飾演「民主女神」角色，或得到另一位諾貝爾和平獎得主、南非黑人民權領袖曼德拉一類的道德高地，恐怕是不可能的。
曼德拉主張建立「彩虹國度」，終結種族隔離政策後，也防止黑人歧視白人，這種「大和解」的思維，令他受全球尊敬，也令南非保住基本穩定。但昂山雖然也和軍政府「大和解」，但面對的情況和曼德拉的完全不同。當她要保住軍人集團既得利益，就肯定要賦予軍人特權，也要確保他們的商業壟斷得到鞏固。作為軍人之女，昂山和軍方高層的關係不差，近年已和前總統登盛建立合作默契，相信今後在緬甸改革開放過程中，軍人作為經濟集團得到的實利，將十分豐厚，而這和一般人對反特權的期望，恐怕有所偏差。
南非白人政權雖然失去道德高地，但經濟上十分成功，令曼德拉繼承了非洲其中一個最發達的經濟體，新政府只要蕭規曹隨，已有成績。昂山的緬甸卻百廢待興，經濟上是有待開發的處女地，國民對出現中國式經濟奇蹟充滿期望，卻也容易失望。因此，任何影響經濟發展的不穩定因素，特別是涉及違反人權的少數族裔議題，相信都不會被新政府重視。假如國際人權組織以同一標準關注這些議題，恐怕會對未來的昂山另眼相看。
再說南非雖然存在根深蒂固的種族矛盾，但不同族群建立獨立實體的實力相對有限，就是一度有效忠不同部族的民兵出現，由於部族並沒有可持續發展的經濟基礎，基本上不成氣候。昂山的緬甸卻面對切切實實的分離主義，少數族群武裝實力不容小視，在各地都割據一方，而且控制資源，容易尾大不掉。期望昂山對不同族群一視同仁，本不可能，加上她的支持者不少持「大緬族主義」，就是她本人包容，也肯定受壓。而且昂山似乎已鎖定羅興亞人為犧牲對象，通過默許軍政府打壓這些穆斯林權益，確立自己作為民族主義者的身份。這類妥協在現實政治，恐怕陸續有來。
最後，南非雖然是地區大國，但地緣政治位置相對簡單，緬甸目前卻處於亞太角力漩渦的中心，除了中美爭奪，印度、日本等國亦對緬甸市場充滿期待。昂山要維持穩定，就不可能得罪任何大國，只能左右逢源，以求儘快得到經濟發展的實利。假如以過往二十年的「民主女神」光環看昂山，失望是早晚的事；還是以管治者的標準期待她的施政，對這位軍事強人之女而言，才是客觀、現實。
小詞典：「民主女神」
1989年，中國發生六四事件，學生在天安門廣場樹立「民主女神像」，自此成為運動象徵。同年昂山素姬回緬甸參政，不久被軍政府軟禁，海外媒體開始以「民主女神」稱呼她，既作為緬甸民運的象徵，也配合了天安門「民主女神」的往事，成為全球民主運動的圖騰，因此一度成為中國的敏感詞。
信報財經新聞
Comments
對在生的人封上「女神」稱號都是言之尚早 尤其是政治人物 昂山當政後繼續得到高民望，但在外國眼中似乎跟獲釋前的印象不一樣 究竟緬甸人民需要昂山繼續做「民主女神」還是想要一個現實的當權者？ 如果昂山只是當緬甸人想要的當權者，在其他國家的眼中或者不太重要？
LHC
2021-02-19 17:14:08 +0000 UTCCan we say it is a problem? Like if HKer moved to UK/Taiwan/Australia, their 2nd generation recognized themselves as HKer. We would be happy to see the heritage of HK can pass on.
LHC
2021-02-19 17:04:45 +0000 UTCSsu Kyi is therefore right in not showing favour to either side.
avger
2021-02-19 17:00:06 +0000 UTCIn the long run the Rohingya probably lose out, because they are outnumbered (not necessarily because they are more merciful).
avger
2021-02-19 16:58:46 +0000 UTCA Rohingya armed group brandishing guns and swords is responsible for at least one, and potentially a second, massacre of up to 99 Hindu women, men, and children as well as additional unlawful killings and abductions of Hindu villagers in August 2017, Amnesty International revealed today after carrying out a detailed investigation inside Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Based on dozens of interviews conducted there and across the border in Bangladesh, as well as photographic evidence analyzed by forensic pathologists, the organization revealed how Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) fighters sowed fear among Hindus and other ethnic communities with these brutal attacks. “Our latest investigation on the ground sheds much-needed light on the largely under-reported human rights abuses by ARSA during northern Rakhine State’s unspeakably dark recent history,” said Tirana Hassan, Crisis Response Director at Amnesty International.
avger
2021-02-19 16:57:10 +0000 UTCAtrocities go both ways. The below is one well known report of Rohingyas committing atrocities.
avger
2021-02-19 16:57:03 +0000 UTC昂山素姬沒有為羅興亞人滅絕發聲, 等同幫凶, 責任難逃的, 不佩民主女神稱號。至於仍有一定的民望, 只是比起軍方的貪腐獨裁和手段來說, 親昂山領導傷害較輕吧
Elaine Yip
2021-02-19 15:53:19 +0000 UTCSuu Kyi is definitely a controversial political figure. True. Mandela seems to be more respected for his contributions of racial equality in South Africa. However, Simon rightly pointed out her constraints in Burma. Netizens are arguing over whether she is held responsible for the Rohingya genocide. Well, of course, she must be one of them giving green light but the paradox is ..... did she have the choice? Of course, we may argue that she should fight for those people lives at all costs. She is to blame for sure BUT it may be unfair to her as well if we do not take her real situation into account. Accusing a person of not doing enough is very easy. Maybe, it is about time for us to understand that reality is always more complicated and tough than we thought. I am not here to defend this lady but the truth is she could only see her husband five times after her house arrest. I genuinely believe that she could leave Burma if she wanted but she knew that she could not get back again. If you were her, would you do that? Well, nobody knows if suu kyi has been corrupted or polluted by political power. What I know is we should judge a person from a broader and multifaceted perspective. Sometimes, judging the book by its cover is very unfair and shallow........
Thomas Tong
2021-02-19 14:57:01 +0000 UTC我猜他指的是若開邦的羅興亞人被殺和燒村的事，然後昂山在聽證會上否認有屠殺一事吧。
Ls Kwan
2021-02-19 14:38:28 +0000 UTC同意。軍方就是要把民主滅於萌芽。跟中國一樣。
Ls Kwan
2021-02-19 14:29:29 +0000 UTCThis is probably not unique to countries in Asia. In England, there is a sizible Irish popular, who still identify themselves as Irish after generations. Whom until recently faces institutions discrimination, and might still do. For the uninitiated foreigner, regardless of the perspective, it is an easy "mistake" to call a Welsh, Scottish or Irish person "English". That is by far the easiest way to "annoy" them. This seem more like a global problem of understanding, or the lack of, of any historical issue involved more than one type of person.
Tom
2021-02-19 13:41:05 +0000 UTC我會這樣說，是因為看了這篇文章。正因為昂山是弱勢的，她只有民望，卻沒有太多實權。如果在羅興亞人的事情上發聲了，只會令國內的人更針對他們，特別是該國的激進佛教組織。外國的制裁，尚且不能有效制止國防軍的政變，更何況小小的羅興亞人？ 當然，這絕不代表她不是權力擁抱者。我只是不想現在就下結論， https://theinitium.com/article/20170915-international-MyanmarRohingya/invite_token/dehzYrpkmE
Ls Kwan
2021-02-19 12:26:09 +0000 UTC明顯，軍方和昂山在緬甸政府中是勢不兩立的； 雙方的分歧最近大爆發暴露出來了。你說的屠殺是誰幹的呢？
avger
2021-02-19 12:24:05 +0000 UTC行大緬族主義唔會令昂山受譴責，但屠殺會，昂山民望咁高，有需要行到無差別屠殺，讚揚強姦婦女嘅行為嗎？根本就係權力擁抱者
Vincent Cheuk Yin Lam
2021-02-19 11:57:17 +0000 UTC甚麼支持者看法都是偽命題，昂山民望咁高，如果曾經真心為民主做嘢，就算冇可能民族平等，都冇理由擁抱屠殺行為。 根本昂山只係權力擁抱者
Vincent Cheuk Yin Lam
2021-02-19 11:54:33 +0000 UTC西藏漢族人口迅速增長，從解放時期的數百人，到如今已超過8% （保守估計）。 但什麼是西藏，什麼是西藏人和西藏文化，不但達賴喇嘛（格魯派）有看法，其他寧瑪派薩迦派等領袖也有相同的看法；就如緬甸軍方和昂山素姬對什麼是緬甸什麼是緬甸人一樣。
avger
2021-02-19 11:45:45 +0000 UTC（除了ROHINGYA）
avger
2021-02-19 11:23:48 +0000 UTC緬甸軍方和昂山素姬對“什麼是緬甸”， 緬甸的歷史和各民族等的看法等等， 應該是較一致的，而且更準確地反映普遍緬甸境內的人的想法。
avger
2021-02-19 11:23:10 +0000 UTC有趣的比較。昂山素姬面對軍方和商界各種錯綜複雜的利益關係，國內不同種族強力的民武團，又要面對中國巨人的金錢基建利誘和侵略，實在太不容易了。 要是昂山只是一個站在道德高地說話的人，一心追求理想中的民主，而毫不理會緬甸真實的經濟情況和宗教衝突，我猜她只會更快地被失望的民眾拉下來，或者是被國防軍當作緬甸追求民主的吉祥物。只有經濟發展了，憲法完善了，昂山才有bargaining power去全面對抗國防軍。 外媒認為昂山她不能在短短數年內令緬甸重生，就是墮落，這也太嚴苛了吧。
Ls Kwan
2021-02-19 11:17:39 +0000 UTCIt is better that we try to understand Asian problems from a perspective which also includes Asian historical understanding.
avger
2021-02-19 10:47:02 +0000 UTCThere are numerous Koreans born and raised in Japan. There always was a racial problem on this issue. Both the Japanese and the Koreans remember from their history that Koreans are not Japanese. Only in a Western context would Japan-born Koreans be called "Japanese". In Western civilisation this is seen as a big problem, particularly in years past, because Japan-born Koreans were perceived to be disadvantaged, economically, socially and politically.
avger
2021-02-19 10:44:22 +0000 UTCSsu Kyi is much misunderstood and maligned on the racial issue. Myanmar, unlike the other three Indochinese theravadist （上座部/小乘）countries （Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) which are less heterogenous, Myanmar has always been much more multi-racial. When she came together it was. always as a Buddhist land. The Rohingya however are are Muslim Bengali migrants from recent [British] times : at no time were they part of Myanmar's age-old history. The Army's view of the Rohingya, as well as Ssu Kyi's view of the Rohingya, properly reflects the view of the people of Myanmar. Only if one subscribes to contemporary Western interpretations of Nationality could it be argued that the Rohingya are part of Myanmar.
avger
2021-02-19 10:39:11 +0000 UTC
